PROFITABLE AND SUSTAINABLE S&P500 TRADING:
    ELP PROGRAM
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    Dec.13, 2019

    Hi guys,
    Much uncertainty surrounding the economy seems to be taken away. At least we know pretty for sure that the Fed will keep its rate unchanged all next year; that there is gonna be a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico; that Brexit will actually happen; and that the US-China trade deal will also take place unless someone in the high places has not yet made pocketfuls of money by manipulating the market. Fundamentals of the US economy remain strong, with an unprecedented unemployment showing of 3.5% etc.
    As a result, the stock market has found its footing and seems ready for another strong day today. Still, our recommendations remain conservative - to be cautious and stay on the sidelines, because some technicals look rather scary and the feeling is that the market in going on on drugs irrespective of what might happen next. We experienced that kind of thinking in the days and years of "irrational exuberance" and "new economy"; but maybe not all remember. We remain neutral and recommend you to do the same. In case there is actually a signal, watch our signal page for our updated recommendations here.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Dec.12, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Fundamentals of the US economy remain strong: yesterday it was again confirmed by stronger than expected unemployment figure (3.5%). Moreover, Democrats in the Congress seem to be ready to support the new trade deal with Canada and Mexico proposed by Trump's administration and his other actions, despite of pressing on with impeachment. The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.75%, which was expected. Erratic and undirectional trading continued yesterday, with much uncertainty remaining in the markets, although some of it has been dispelled. Our recommendations remain to be cautious and stay on the sidelines for now, until there is a clearer picture on the horizon, and wait till the current tensions and discrepancies, both technical and fundamental, have been resolved. We remain neutral unless there is a big movement in either direction. In case there is actually a movement, watch our signal page for our updated recommendations here.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Dec.11, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Erratic and undirectional trading continued yesterday, with much uncertainty remaining in the markets. Our recommendations remain to be cautious and stay on the sidelines for now, until there is a clearer picture on the horizon, and wait till the current tensions and discrepancies, both technical and fundamental, have been resolved. Of course we remain neutral too. Stay put unless there is a big movement in either direction. In case there is actually a movement, watch our signal page for our updated recommendations here.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Dec.10, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    There is still much uncertainty as to where the markets are heading. There is much to say for up, and as many arguments for down. So our recommendation remains to stay on the sidelines for now, until there is a clearer picture on the horizon, and wait till the current tensions and discrepancies, both technical and fundamental, have been resolved. By the way, I have noticed that more and more experts give the same advice to their audiences. If people who own stock (and that's more than half of the population of the US) listen and do accordingly, it would mean that more and more people will choose to wait out this period, meaning more selling, meaning dropping prices. Well, it seems logical enough. And I will tell you in secret: one component of our ELP Program is already short. But another one, the one that follows the trend, is still long. So as a result, we are neutral for now, and recommend the same to you. Unless there is a big move in any which direction, in which case we will tell you what to do: just watch our signals here. And remember: ELP is at its best in down years!
    Good luck to you, your families and friends,
    ELP team
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    Dec.7, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Saturday today, so time for the Saturday weekly performance review: see the table below.
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 3.4% ($2,390) 0.16%
    1 month -0.57% (-$400) 1.71%
    3 months 9.03% ($6,320) 5.61%
    YTD 39.49% ($27,641) 25.49%
    1 year 28.55% ($19,986) 19.48%

    In spite of a solid performance by the S&P 500, by any counts, ELP Program is beating it so far. Overall, as the year draws nearer to its close, we see that ELP is quite confidently completing the year with a better than average result. Will it keep it up in bad years? Remember than it is in down years when ELP is at its best. Better not to try the fate but subscribe to ELP Program RIGHT NOW and be safe against the downturns of the market!
    Good luck and a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Dec.6, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Well, it was touch and go yesterday as the index hovered above our lower signal line for some time before going down below it. As a result, we remain on the sidelines without a position. The volume of trading was low, about half the usual, with traders obviously undecided as to where the stocks are headed. With much uncertainty around (trade negotiations, impeachment, now NATO differences into the bargain etc.), we may well see another December slump as in 2018.
    Meanwhile, an interesting figure from Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM (audit and consulting firm): US services companies have added 1.4 million jobs this year, compared with just 2,000 for manufacturing. That's some food for thought.
    Anyway, good luck and happy trading,
    ELP team
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    Dec.5, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    For the time being, we are keeping on the sidelines of that rather crazy game around global trade conducted by Trump and China, in which I am sure many insiders take part profitably. (Meanwhile, the US trade deficit fell 7.6% to $47bn in October, which is a reflection of an overall slump in trade - but with imports falling faster than exports. But if a nation consumes more than it produces, it is highly unlikely the gap will vanish altogether. China accounts for almost two thirds of the deficit, but I believe it will take no less than a war between the two countries to eliminate that gap). But we are not insiders, we are straight guys here playing the game of probability only, so we are out - for now. But we are prepared to enter the fray if conditions are right - see the Signals page. The corridor where we are prepared to act is rather narrow, so we recommend to wait until we confirm the trade (if any) at 3.15 pm or sooner to our subscribers.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Dec.4, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    So, the position is nil after yesterday's trading, and maybe it is in order to explain how come my simulated trading, which I conduct on the CME Simulated Trading platform, has produced different (worse) results from those by hypothetical trading according to ELP Program proper (see both on the "Current results" page).
    Well, first of all, it again demonstrates that "systems work, traders don't". Fact is, when I started trading on Oct.31, ELP had given two conflicting signals some time before, so there should have been no position until Nov.7 when the long was closed out. But I "cherry-picked" the short position which I thought to be more "promising" (lol), and went short way too early at 3034.5 (instead of on Nov.7 at about 3090). This difference of c.55 points (in terms of E-mini S&P 500 futures) is exactly the difference between my sim. trading results and ELP's result for this (first on this site!) trade. So, in future, I promise I won't try to catch up but will strictly follow the ELP rules, so that simulated trading results as much as possible copy and resemble ELP's hypothetical results.
    Don't try to beat the system, or "improve" it in the heat of the trading day!
    Yours, ELP team
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    Dec.3, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    November is out, here's the results for ELP. The month saw a loss of -$2,790, or almost 4%. It was short 1 ESZ9 since November 7, but the index rose relentlessly until it dropped somewhat; but that was in December already, so doesn't count. Well, things happen, it is not a magic wand but only a tool based on probability, and probability can be wrong by definition.
    Still, ELP remains well in the black for the year so far: plus 36% vs plus 26% for the S&P500.
    Look up today's signals and happy trading!
    Cheers, ELP team
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    Nov.29, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Seeing that it is a holiday and so a short day in the US, and clearing my week-end of working stuff, here is the weekly performance of ELP in comparison with the S&P 500:
    PeriodELP S&P500
    5 days -2.19% (-$1,534) 1.5%
    1 month -3.99% (-$2,790) 3.5%
    3 months 17.02% ($11,914) 9.2%
    YTD 36.07% ($25,251) 25.8%
    1 year 43.69% ($30,584) 14.9%

    Have a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Nov.27, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Did you know that the S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index? While the index itself accounts for about 75% of the total US stock market capitalization, within the index, ten biggest companies account for the 21% of the performance of the index, while such household names as Macy's and Under Armor account for only just hundredths of percent.
    To beat the performance of the S&P 500 is a dream of most fund managers. Live their dream! Subscribe to ELP and beat the index!
    Happy Thanksgiving and have merry holidays,
    Cheers, ELP team
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    Nov.26, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Quite an interesting study yesterday in MarketWatch by Mark Hulbert. The presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren calls for a higher taxation of the rich. The rich claim that stocks will tumble in that case. Mark tried to find a correlation between the odds of Ms.Warren becoming President as estimated by participants of the gambling site PredictIt.org and stocks dynamics. Here is the picture.
    S&P500-Warren correlation
    Well, I am in two minds about that chart. There are in fact negatively correlated areas, which would imply that Ms.Warren is bad for the stock market. On the other hand, both S&P500 and Ms.Warren's odds have risen substantially since January, which would imply the opposite. What do you think?
    Meanwhile, the S&P500 again opened with a gap up Monday. If you ask me, it is clearly an exhaustion gap. Stocks are overbought, and a reversal is imminent (just when will it happen and what will be the pretext?). Anyway, we are short, and remain so. Cheers,
    ELP team
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    Nov.23, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    OK, it's Saturday today, time to take a look at the weekly performance. As you see from the table, ELP managed to eke out a profit of 0.73% this past week, but is still in the red for the past 30 days. On the other hand, the more long-term metrics are positive, which is what to be expected. With ELP, you should be prepared to withstand some short-term fluctuations, but in the long run ... Yeah, I know, I know what Mr. Keynes said, in the long run we will all be dead. But ELP's long run isn't that long. ELP is profitable every year (so far). Here is the table.
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 0.73% ($508) -0.33%
    1 month -1.79% (-$1,256) 2.90%
    3 months 19.56% ($13,692) 9.24%
    YTD 38.26% ($26,785) 24.07%
    1 year 64.7% ($45,292) 18.15%

    Have a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Nov.22, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    There wasn't much of a do yesterday in the markets, it was a quiet day. We seem to be stuck with a short position for now. Since this is the case, it may be in order to begin to get used to the idea of rolling over to the next front month in futures, which is March of 2020. ELP's rule for rolling over is to do it on the second Thursday or Friday of the expiring month, which is December. This is exactly one week before trading will be shut for the expiring contract.
    If we remain in the short position till then, all you need to do is buy one ESZ9 contract, thereby closing out the current short position, and immediately, or preferably simultaneously, sell one ESH0 contract, thus opening a short position in March E-mini S&P500 futures. If you are short MES futures, do the same thing with those futures.
    I will remind you about the rollover in good time.
    For now, we are short 1 ES and 3 MES on a starting capital of $100,000 (CME Simulated Trading platform). We sold 3 MES contracts to enhance ELP's position in ES, as there was an extra amount of capital. These last two days, the gap formed on Nov.15 was closed, and given this political and economic environment, stocks might go up again. So you could close the MES (in case you are emulating me) with a small profit and sell again higher, or if the index goes lower, remain with a legit short position in ES at any rate.
    And who knows - maybe there will be a signal to go long yet.
    Cheers,
    ELP team
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    Nov.21, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Yesterday, the S&P500 closed the gap that was formed on Nov.14-15 (see picture),
    S&P500 daily chart
    when the index jumped above the 3,100 mark right from the start. Having done that, the index has, for now, lost the immediate reason to decline, and may quite easily continue its course upwards given any favorable fundamental data.
    But ELP is looking for a bigger move. After all, nobody has yet disproved the need for mean reversion from time to time.
    So we continue to stay put (short).
    ELP team
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    Nov.20, 2019

    Hello guys,
    The month of November is gradually drawing to a close, and we are still short 1 E-mini S&P500 (since 11/7) waiting for a change in our fortunes. Since CME provides their Simulated Trading platform users with a capital of $100,000 (and our recommended capital is $70,000, as you will remember), I took the chance to enhance our virtual position by selling 3 Micro E-minis on the leftover ($30,000) at 3117.00 - much better than the original trade at 3034.50. That is quite legit - if you have a capital larger than required, feel free to strengthen your position, but in compliance with the recommended rules. Here, the allowed amount per 1 Micro E-mini is $7,000; 3 contracts fit in easily.
    Well, basically we stay put for now.
    Bye till tomorrow,
    ELP team
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Dec.13, 2019
Dec.12, 2019
Dec.11, 2019
Dec.10, 2019
Dec.7, 2019
Dec.6, 2019
Dec.5, 2019
Dec.4, 2019
Dec.3, 2019
Nov.29, 2019
Nov.27, 2019
Nov.26, 2019
Nov.23, 2019
Nov.22, 2019
Nov.21, 2019
Nov.20, 2019