PROFITABLE AND SUSTAINABLE S&P500 TRADING:
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    Feb.18, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Stocks up, houses up, treasuries up, gold up... What is that? A toxic mix or a blessing? No need to think anymore, just buy anything and you'll be fine?
    Meanwhile, Trump's team is thinking how to sustain that bullish run by pumping more money: they are going to promise voters that a portion of their income will be freed from taxtion if invested into stocks. President Trump sees the rising stock market largely as an indicator, or even THE indicator, of the strength of the general economy.
    Which may or may not be the case, actually. But what is important this time around is that people investing their money instead of spending it on consumption are effectively sterilizing it, lowering the velocity of money circulation and therefore keeping inflation at bay. Which in turn enables the Fed and the government to pump more money into the economy.
    When this bubble will burst - no one knows. Technically (as the "technical analysis" of the charts shows), it should burst right now. The investor survey conducted by the Boston Consulting Group in Nov and Dec 2019, found that, on average, respondents' outlook is similar to what it was just before the market correction in late 2018. Nearly two-thirds of respondents have a bearish or very bearish view of the likely performance levels of equity markets over the next three years. Among all respondents, 73% believe that markets are overvalued, an uptick from 67% in the 2018 survey. Still the steroids and anabolics injected in the economy may for some time delay the inevitable. It is better to be prepared, though.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Feb.15, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    As usual on Saturdays, please see our weekly results:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 0% 1.58%
    1 month 3.18% 1.52%
    3 months 1.59% 8.32%
    YTD 1.53% 4.62%
    1 year 29.19% 21.78%


    ELP team
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    Feb.14, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Almost exactly 50 years ago, on February 13, 1970, the NYSE allowed Joseph Searles to become the first black trader on its floor. Before that, he graduated from George Washington University and played (American) football for the New York Giants.
    Speaking of coronavirus, I came across an interesting chart yesterday:
    In fact, the chart is not completely true: there was in fact a fall of about 3.5% when the news of the virus first came out, but still the reaction of the market this time around has been milder - so far. Have we gotten used to such outbreaks? It's still too early to say, though. The average reaction time in the previous 5 cases was 62 days, while in the present case, only 17 have passed.
    There was some dramatic news yesterday about the acceleration in both mortality and morbidity from the virus in China. I don't know, having a history of half-truths and cover-ups before, maybe previous information was artificially understated, and now the authorities have decided to come clean and begin to tell all the truth and nothing but the truth, and hence the jump in figures? Hard to tell.
    But taking into account an increased - again - uncertainty around the disease, plus some tense news about the Middle East, I will not be suprised if we see some unloading on the part of stock market investors to reduce the risk before the coming long week-end (President's Day). The more so that, according to the survey of investors just released by the Boston Consulting Group, many investors believe that the current bull market is running on borrowed time, and are quite pessimistic about the near future. Beware.
    Good luck, and happy President's Day!
    ELP team
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    Feb.13, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    This week, I gave some thought to why the S&P500 keeps rising. Yes of course, the trend is your friend and all that. But why does the trend persist? Where does the money come from?
    First of all, the number of Americans (US residents) participating in the stock market has decreased rather significantly over the last decade, from about 65% of the adult population to about 55%. That means that Americans can not be the source of the money. Indeed, it turns out that about $8 trillion of FOREIGN private capital is invested today in the US stock market, or about 35% of the S&P500 market capitalization. In 2002, the figure was $1.4 trillion (15%). So, it seems obvious that to a large extent, foreign money helped engineer the US stock market rise.
    But the question remains, why? Why would Europeans and Asians invest in the US, when more often than not, there is a vibrant stock market locally? The answer, I believe, is the excess of US dollars resulting from the positive (for the rest of the world) balance of trade with the US. Notably, the aggregate balance of payment surplus for the world in its trade with the US almost exactly tallies with the amount of money pumped by the world into the US stock market over the same period since 2002.
    So, rather than convert the dollars and use the money locally, the countries and businesses send it back to where the assets are denominated in the US dollars in the first place, that is, in the US itself. And it means that, fighting the US trade balance deficit, which he hates, President Trump at the same time undermines the growth of the US stock market, which he loves. Somebody, tell him to stop the trade wars he has begun, or he will see a stock market crash that will bring him down as president.
    Good luck, and happy President's Day!
    ELP team
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    Feb.12, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Today is beginning very much like yesterday, so we keep our signals unchanged. See the Signal page.
    What really interests me, seeing that the S&P500 keeps rising even after it has hit record highs innumerable number of times already, is where all this money comes from? I mean if nobody sells but everybody buys, all the investable money must have been invested by now? Does it mean that it is foreigners who help push up the index? Foreign funds, other large investors? If it is, is it good for the market, or is there a danger of them selling their assets more or less quickly and concurrently and moving the money back to their respective home markets when the situation is better there, resulting in a steep fall of the US markets? I believe it is quite a plausible scenario. We shall see, of course, how it plays out. And soon enough.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Feb.11, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    What is there in common between John Donne the poet and J.P.Morgan the financier?
    "John Donne is fast asleep. Asleep are things around. Asleep are walls, floor, pictures, bed..." That's Brodsky's Elegy for John Donne.
    J.P.Morgan? If you are anxious about your investments, so much that you are unable to sleep, "sell down to the sleeping point", he famously said.
    Hallo, J.P. .. SELL down? No way! I am anxious I haven't invested my last penny in the stock market... BUY UP and sleep calmly!
    "The world is fast asleep. John Donne could envy. Coronavirus, Putin, Trump, Duterte, Kim Il-song, impeachment, wars, stock market, climate change..." No more, no more... Buy up. Sleep well. Dream great.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Feb.8, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    This past week, the S&P500 and other American indices set new records again. Can it be the hallmark of a healthy economy, as President Trump insists? Or, as the Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg (Boot-edge-edge, not Butty-judge) says, there should be other measures, such as the number of population living in poverty ("When I'm president, we're going to measure the performance of our economy not by the Dow Jones, but by the income growth of the 90%")? Well, it seems that depends on who is currently at the helm. And, of course, on how many people are actually invested in the stock market. For example, if Putin said that the Russian economy was great because the MICEX index (the Russian stock market index) was at record highs, 99% of Russians wouldn't have understood what he was talking about. But when he talks about poverty, 99% understand (1% are still at a loss).
    There was not much of a performance from ELP this week, as it was flat throughout the week. We can see that the S&P500 is in the black again for the year to date. The table is below:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 0% 3.17%
    1 month 1.53% 1.91%
    3 months 0.95% 7.59%
    YTD 1.53% 3.00%
    1 year 28.25% 22.89%

    Good luck and have a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Feb.7, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    You know what? Tesla could now be the 38th largest company in the S&P500 index. Its market capitalization is twice that of Ford Motors and General Motors COMBINED! The only thing that prevents it from actually be on the index is the fact that it is NOT PROFITABLE, which is not surprising because it produces way less cars than the other automakers. Tesla first overtook Ford in terms of capitalization in 2017 when it produced just 8,000 cars a month compared to Ford's 250,000! Since then, the gap only grew. So, what has people been investing in? A myth? A bubble? As it turns out, they invested in Elon Musk's mojo, his charisma and his vision of the future. And they were right, and made a lot of money along the way. That's your wisdom of crowds in action.
    Well then, buying the S&P500, whose mojo or vision of the future do people invest in? Donals Trump's? He has a lot of mojo, perhaps, but his vision of the future? What comes to mind is his life-long presidency and America turned into his private golf club with an entrance fee of $1B. Well then, with the S&P500 rising, is it the madness of crowds? Or wisdom of crowds, again? Tesla has been riding alonside the S&P500, after all. OK, no matter. We shall see.
    ELP Program, on the other hand, is not a crowd. ELP Program is more like Warren Buffet - an ever calculating genius weighing chances all the time. And we can't just tell her (a program is a "she" in Russian) "come on, let's buy it, the wisdom of the crowd dictates". First of all, she won't hear. Second of all, she will likely answer...well, I won' repeat it here. Because she knows what to do and when, and if she doesn't act, then there must be a reason. Maybe the momentum driving the trend has weakened and does not justify the risk. Maybe the level of uncertainty is too high. And maybe she is just plain wrong. ELP can be actually wrong a certain amount of time. We never said it was hundred percent right. So maybe it is one of such times. We shall see.
    For the time being, keep your cool, play chess, or golf, or both, but do not forget to check the signal page or whatever messenger you use to receive signals.
    And act decisively if the market is right.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Feb.6, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    The S&P500 is continuing its yesterday's rally today, at least as I am writing this at about 01.30am Chicago time. One component of ELP Program, the one responsible for following the trend, is actually in the long position, but another one, which is tracking overbought and oversold conditions, is short, so we are neutral again. Don't think about what we could have gained if we were long, better think about what we could have lost if we were short. As it is, we are saving a little on commission and saving big on nerves. Because look at Tesla: it kind of shows how the S&P500 may behave, with two days of giant leaps and then a giant fall. Do we want to be part of that? I don't think so.
    Meanwhile uncertainty around the coronavirus does not get any lesser. The WHO has admitted that the world does not has a cure yet; the number of infected people grows; the virus spreads relentlessly around the globe.
    The US economy has not been as yet directly hit, and internal matters are more visible on the investors' radar, such as Trump's acquittal, low inflation and low unemployment, but that can change quickly, as we who have lived through several crises know. Speaking of inflation, it seems that all inflation that could have arisen in the wake of the Fed's "quantitative easing" (meaning pumping money into the economy) has, for now, been channeled into the stock market. But it can materialize in other spheres, with consumer spending on the rise, and the Fed will have to raise rates. That would lead to massive stock selling. It is quite a plausible scenario, but private investors rarely think of negative scenarios when they are in a euphoria like the current one.
    On the positive note, the Fed is learning, and deserves every respect for maintaining macroeconomic indicators at such excellent levels. This is not say that economic cycles are now in the past. We heard this talk before, but downturns, maybe also due to such complacency, were none the less severe than they had been before.
    We should be on the alert, but act decisively when the situation is right.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Feb.5, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    The S&P500 has jumped again overnight, admittedly on the reports that the Chinese have found a cure for the coronavirus and the British are close to developing a vaccine. The wise guys, meanwhile, are selling at the high, like Amazon's Bezos who has sold almost $2B worth of his company's shares lately. This is not to say that the rally will not go on for some time longer; nobody knows that. But it is looking more and more precarious, like a wrestler on steroids (pumped into the system by the Fed and Trump's administration) who can fall down with a heart attack at any time.
    If ELP Program seems a little too cautious to you, I have a story. When I was managing an investor's account some time ago, I made about 7% in three-months time. $15,000 on his $200K investment. So he began pestering me calling 3 and more times in a day and asking questions like "Why don't you buy when stocks go up?" or "Why don't you sell when stocks go down?" Be agressive, man, he told me. But then as now, I made my trades according to a plan carefully pre-planned, and did not want to change it on the fly, just because somebody called me on the phone.
    So he took his account and transferred it to another company, which successfully churned almost all his money in a matter of months. But he was satisfied - at first, at least - that they traded agressively every day in many markets. In half a year, he was pennyless.
    Don't get greedy and try to get rich in an instant. Yeah, you may get lucky. People who got lucky one year and then lost everything after that often go around lecturing how they are the beacons of wisdom: they made 150% in 19XX, they predicted a crash in 20YY, or they forecast an uptrend in 19ZZ. No, this isn't what makes a financial genius. A financial genius is one who gets 30% year in, year out, for a stretch of many years. Like George Soros or Warren Buffet. Want to replicate Buffet without his resources? Use ELP Program.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Feb.4, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    The S&P500 is looking strong as I am writing this. Yesterday, it closed 23 points higher than the day before, and overnight, the futures have risen another 33-35 points. So maybe we are looking at the possibility of opening a long position today, but the window is really narrow: higher than 3288, but not higher than 3292. The exact numbers will be conveyed to subscribers at about 14.45 Chicago time, as usual.
    Volatility has increased lately, with the S&P500 trading throughout all the range of 3200-3300 these last six days. It can mean anything really - either a downfall or the continuation of the uptrend, so it is not advisable to enter the fray just now. Only when we (our ELP Program) are able to glimpse a direction, will we signal a trade.
    Keep your cool and don't try to outguess the reality (the market); wait until the close of the day; then look up our signal page (or any messenger/email you use for that purpose) and make your trade (or don't).
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Feb.3, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    There is much to look forward to this week. We will see the Democratic Party's first primaries in Iowa (today) and the outcome of the impeachment trial at the US Senate (Wednesday); the continuing impact of the Chinese coronavirus on the world economy; new tensions in the Middle East between Turkey and Russia... In the first half, a flurry of PMI indices will be published. The PMI is an index showing the level of business sentiment. It has been going down recently for several months in a row, with the January reading for PMI Manufacturing (the headline index) of 47.2 being the lowest since 2009. PMI Manufacturing will come out today and may weigh on the stock market.
    But keep your cool and wait till the close of the day; then look up our signals again and make your trade (or don't).
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Feb.1, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    This time, the end of the week and the end of the month of January coincided, so you can also look up the updated performance at Performance. (Spoiler: not much has changed). Below, our weekly results compared with those of the S&P500 index:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 3.70% -2.12%
    1 month 1.53% -0.29%
    3 months 0.95% 5.17%
    YTD 1.53% -0.16%
    1 year 29.61% 19.18%

    What is evident? One month of the year has passed, and both ELP and the S&P500 are already closer to their respective annual averages. As I said a week before, the performance of both the S&P500 and ELP Program is gradually getting back to normal. A lesson for (non-professional) investors here consists in the following: Instead of flocking into mutual funds, ETFs and other instruments tracking an index AFTER its stellar performance, one should give some strong considerations to actually LEAVING them in favor of other, flexible instruments, like ELP Program, and get ready for a slump. It is called regression to the mean, or reversion to the mean. Look it up!
    If you want to receive our daily blog with performance reviews and other important developments, please subscribe HERE.
    Good luck and have a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Jan.31, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    It was a close call yesterday - we almost bought at close when stocks surged on Amazon news that had beaten predictions - but the S&P500 never made it to our threshold price of 3288. The futures though were even higher than that, trading as high as 3294, but I will take this opportunity to remind you that our benchmark is the cash index and not the futures. So we remained flat and will see what today brings.
    And today will be a busy day. With the WHO declaring a global emergency, stocks weakened again after yesterday's strong performance. (Btw, the new coronavirus was detected in several patients in Moscow yesterday). BREXIT becomes a reality today. Impeachment vote at the US Senate. An array of important economic releases in the US: GDP, Personal Income, CPI, Unemployment, Industrial Production...So some volatility may be expected. But we are not interested in intraday fluctuations, although it may be a boon for day traders. Stay calm: our target is clear, although it may be adjusted closer to the end of the trading day depending on the day's developments. All subscribers will receive a timely notification.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.30, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    The stock market is falling today after yesterday's rebound, which most likely will again leave us in the neutral position (see Signals.) In this connection, I will try to answer the question some people ask: why ELP Program generates so few trades? Why is it so passive? With so much happening around, shouldn't it be more active?
    Well, in a sense, ELP is both active and passive. It is "passive" doing about 26 trades a year, that is, not active in a trivial sense, not being in a frenzy of buying and selling all the time. By the way, many studies have found that those who trade more frequently get worse returns than those who lean toward the old-fashioned buy-and-hold strategy. Because in the long run, say, the S&P500 index will reliably produce a return of around 10 percent per annum. But, as the economist John Maynard Keynes once said, "in the long run we are all dead". A typical investor wants a reliable income from his investment every quarter, or at least every year. Which the passive strategy of buy-and-hold is unable to deliver. For example, if you were (so unlucky as) to invest in the S&P500 index or any other broad slice of the US stock market in 2000 (buying the SPY ETF shares, for example), you would have waited for 12 or 13 years to get a single dollar of return, and would have lived through a couple of severe (55%) drawdowns in the meantime. There are few brave people like that, and many of them would have been literally dead by the end of that period, as Keynes predicted.
    In that sense, ELP Program is "active". In part, this is thanks to the flexibility provided by futures. In a greater part, though, it is due to a combination of fundamental patterns ELP Program is based on, and makes use of. Thanks to all those factors, it can "buy and hold", or change direction and "sell and hold", buy/sell and not "hold" but quickly quit, vary the position size (up to 3 contracts in each direction per unit of capital, the unit of capital being $70,000 for E-minis, $7,000 for Micro E-minis and $350,000 for the standard S&P500 futures).
    To sum up: ELP is "passive" in the sense that it trades infrequently (good!). It is active in the sense that it doesn't blindly follow the index (like ETFs), but, by means of changing the direction and size of its positions, it actively pursues profitable opportunities. And generates profit year in and year out!
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.29, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    First of all, let me answer the question I have been asked several times recently: why do we post hypothetical and not real-life results? Wouldn't real-life trading results be a more realistic and truer representation of ELP Program, or any trading system, for that matter?
    Well, our answer is no, it wouldn't. Because, as the saying goes, "systems work, traders don't". In real trading, there is always a chance that traders won't strictly adhere to the rules of the system they trade, miss signals voluntarily or otherwise. They may be afraid to take the risk, or fall ill, or drop dead. Be arrested or disabled in any other way. Anything. But it doesn't mean that the system has failed. It means that the trader has failed. And since traders, being people, are inherently different, so the reasons of their failures can be very different and absolutely not representative of the systems they trade.
    That is why, if we post a signal, and subsequent conditions warrant a trade, and we report that trade with all due account taken of all imaginable transaction costs - it will be the most convincing proof of the system.
    That said, I do not imply by any means that all traders will fail. On the contrary, I hope that most of them - you and us - will stick to it and trade well. But why take chances and then have to explain why something didn't happen when it should have?
    Today's tidings: the number of cases of the Chinese coronavirus has risen again, to about 6,000, but people seem to have come to grips with that issue. At least for now, the disease seems controllable enough.
    The Fed will announce its decision to hold the federal funds rate unchanged today (that's pretty certain), but then Mr. Powell may reveal something at his press-conference later.
    Please note that our BUY signal today comes with a limitation (see Signals.)
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.28, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Well, we weren't lucky - the S&P 500 never reached as high as our target (3370), and we had to be satisfied with just one short contract to go with the fall yesterday. Consistent with our signal, we closed the trade at the end-of-day prices, and now we are in the black for the first time since Novemeber. Still, the year is off to a good start, and we can be pleased. More than a month of sitting in a (moderate) drawdown is over.
    The obvious reason for the fall yesterday were jitters around the new virus in China, but of course a correction was - and is - very due and had to happen from the technical point of view. Something always pops up in the times like this. In fact, there is no catastrophy, at least as yet. Compare the figures for the new virus with the following: just in the US this year, more than 120,000 people were hospitalized (with over a million ill) with the seasonal flew, 6,600 of whom died. (It must be proportionately more in China.) But nobody makes a big deal. Because this is a known threat, while the Chinese coronavirus is new and unknown - that is what's scary. But of course that said, the Chinese authorities are quite right to be so tough in their reaction and assume the worst-case scenario for now.
    From now on, please follow attentively our signal page, because the situation is complex. As we said before, in rare cases the signal posted in the morning may be adjusted before the markets close, but not later than 14.45 Chicago time. Make sure you check the signal page or whatever messenger/email you use to receive signals before you trade.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.25, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Please see the table below with this week's results:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 2.44% -1.03%
    1 month -2.18% 1.71%
    3 months -2.75% 9.03%
    YTD -2.18% 2.00%
    1 year 25.91% 23.67%

    Gradually, the performance of both the S&P500 and ELP Program is beginning to get back to normal. This is only natural: last year was a star performance for the S&P500, so by any logic, it is bound to be worse this year, and maybe much worse - simply by returning to what is normal for it. But it is exactly on such years that you should rely on ELP!
    Please be sure to check our today's signal if you follow them, because there will most likely be a trade on Monday. If you want to receive our daily blog with performance reviews and other important developments, please subscribe HERE.
    Good luck and have a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Jan.24, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Man is a creative animal inventing stories that impose coherence on his world. There is no doubt that when this market boom ends, numerous stories will be suggested immediately explaining why. The more so that there is an abundance of them in the making: climate change in the world, impeachment in America, coronavirus in China, Brexit in Europe, Iran, Russia, North Korea... you name it. But while the boom lasts, the first pages are occupied by good news, and they will not disappear in the recessionary times - but they will be replaced on the first pages by bad news.
    So, at this time, coronavirus is not as bad as could be; climate change does not exist becasue President Trump says so; the Brexit process has become more or less orderly; impeachment is rolling on but Trump will not be removed anyway; and some corporations, such as Intel, have demonstrated good 2019 results giving a boost to the entire high-tech sector of the economy.
    We are all for another spike to about 3370 - this is our target which will trigger selling short another contract to strengthen our position. After that, let it fall)).
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.23, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Is it the so-called "ETF revolution" that makes this market immune to geopolitical, economical, environmental and technical considerations? Many pundits think it is the main culprit behind the inflexibility of the current market. People keep pouring their money into the stock market, but not directly, via their personal accounts with stock brokers, but via numerous ETFs mushrooming lately in America. The high returns of the stock indexes like the S&P 500 have also contributed to that trend. While trading through a broker, people decide for themselves when to buy and when to sell, but ETFs have no option but to put the money they receive from their investors into the index they are tracking, which means buying the respective stock all the time. At this time, it supports the bull market, but it also can bring about, some time in the future, a situation when a few big funds will be able to manipulate the stock market on the NYSE and other exchanges, while retail investors will just blindly follow the movements being invested in ETFs.
    Let us hope that regulatirs are not blind to the problem and will take steps to prevent manipulation.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.22, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Politics, e.g. the impeachment hearings that have begun at the Senate, do not seem to affect the markets in the least. President Trump made an energetic speech in Davos yesterday highlighting all the achievements of his administration. The stock market seems to support his optimism, not wanting to budge an inch off its current highs. The S&P500 and the stock market it represents have become "like a black hole actually, absorbing everyone's money", citing an Asian asset manager. Of course it is risky, because, as usual, the crash will come and it will come suddenly and it will come from the quarters that no-one can even suspect now, but no-one is willing to quit as long as it lasts. To quote another asset manager, it is like a Ponzi scheme: everyone is assured that there is a bubble that will end badly but everyone wants to cash in while it lasts.
    People begin gradually to look for insurance, such as options, but I rather doubt it will help very much against a strong downturn.
    That said, we do not want to be wet blankets here and spoil your party! Just be careful and look out for any signs of reversal.
    As for our position, we are short now, but short only one contract (E-mini or similar, depending on the starting capital), and we are rather anxious to increase our position by at least one more contract. But to do so, the futures (and the S&P 500 iself) should rise a little steeper, because our target trigger signal gets moving higher as the index moves higher. But we are hopeful for a spike upwards, yet another one, and maybe the last, to strengthen our hand.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.19, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Below in the table are this week's results:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days -4.59% 1.97%
    1 month -4.62% 3.37%
    3 months -5.19% 11.50%
    YTD -4.62% 3.06%
    1 year 19.57% 24.67%

    As you can see, the S&P500 performance is shining this year. ELP's, on the other hand, not so much. But that is the difference between BEING an asset and TRADING an asset. We (and ELP Program) have to build a position in the asset we trade, and while it is being built, results may fluctuate. You can check on ELP's performance in the Performance page.
    If you want to receive our daily blog with performance reviews and other important developments, please subscribe HERE.
    Good luck and have a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Jan.18, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Yesterday was exactly 100 years since Prohibition was enacted in the US in the form of the 18th amendment to the Constitution. People drank then, on average, 3 times more than nowadays, so maybe it was a fairly well-reasoned decision after all. Anyway, this is another reason to have a (moderate) drink this long weekend.
    The next week will be shorter for the markets due to Martin L. King's Memorial Day on Monday, but Monday will still be a busy day for the economic picture with the World Economic Forum opening in Davos, Switzerland. President Trump will be taking part, quite relieved (I believe) that he will not be required to pay tribute to a black guy back in the Homeland.
    The markets have finished this week with a bang at yet more record highs. They are clearly overbought, yet "a trend is your friend", and this trend is extremely strong while it lasts.
    Next week, we will be on the lookout for yet another string of corporate reports, among them from IBM and Netflix. Will they confirm the trend or bring an end to it, or at least a brief pause in it - we will see.
    We will post the weekly results tomorrow.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.17, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signed the Impeachment Articles before taking them to the Senate Wednesday. She used 30 customized pens to sign, making each stroke with a different pen, which she immediately gave to someone present as a collectible. She was not the first to do so to mark a historic event. In 1948, President Truman signed The Marshall Plan (Economic Cooperation Act) using a dozen pens, and in 1964, Lindon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act with 75 pens. Meanwhile, there might have appeared a true "smoking gun" in the impeachment process in the person of Lev Parnas, who claims that President Trump knew and personally endorsed everything that was going on in Ukraine regarding the Bidens.
    On the economic front, exuberance continues in the markets regardless the impeachment, maybe more rational this time than in the 90-s. There are indeed some powerful influences that combine to make a strong economy. And one of the main factors is that inflation remains very low in spite of very low unemployment. The Fed Reserve, consequently, does not have to raise interest rates, which additionally boosts the economy.
    Our disposition for today remains the same again. With one E-mini (or similar) contract short, we are awaiting a signal for strengthening our short position by selling short one more if the S&P500 is sufficiently high.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.16, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Our disposition for today remains absolutely the same today as yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that (to be confirmed as usual at 2.45 Chicago time for our subscribers). With one E-mini (or similar) contract short, we are awaiting a signal for strengthening our short position by selling short one more if the S&P500 is sufficiently high.
    We wrote yesterday that the momentum had stalled for stocks to go higher for the time being. Well, evidently not, since the S&P500 has jumped over the psychological fence of 3,300 right at the start. Some sort of dope is administered to the markets all the time. This time is was the actual signing of Phase 1 of the trade treaty with China.
    Russia meanwhile is on the brink of great changes. The Russian society demands change, and at last there will be one: Putin will now not be just President, but Great Ayatolla, the Father of All Slavs. I congratulate all Russians on that.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.15, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Our disposition for today remains absolutely the same today as yesterday (to be confirmed as usual at 2.45 Chicago time for our subscribers). With one E-mini (or similar) contract short, we are awaiting a signal for strengthening our short position by selling short one more if the S&P500 is sufficiently high.
    Fundamental data brings no surprises, while technically, the momentum pushing stocks higher has stalled for now, and there should be a period of some regrouping if stocks are to go significantly higher again.
    On the political front, the House will pass over the impeachment case to the Senate today. Meanwhile, new evidence has emerged of the Trump adminisration attempts to obtain dirt on Democratic candidate Biden and his son in Ukraine. We'll soon see how it influences the case.
    Also today, as usual on Wednesdays, the EIA will make public the level of petroleum inventories. Several Fed Reserve officials are going to deliver speeches this week.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.14, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Besides corporate reporting, what else of importance can we expect this week? First of all, the CPI (minus food and energy): it will be released later today, after the markets close. The consensus is 2.3%. Tomorrow, the same agency (BLS) will release the PPI-FD index (estimated at 1.4%). Both are measures of inflation.
    Also tomorrow, as usual on Wednesdays, the EIA will make public the level of petroleum inventories. Several Fed Reserve officials are going to deliver speeches this week.
    We are in a short position now, but as might be supposed, the market may yet go up for some time. It is to be expected with ELP Program, or any other program or system, as it is virtually impossible to pinpoint the moment of reversal precisely. Nothing unusual about that. Moreover, we may yet open an additional short position should the price go high enough.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.11, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    The weekly results are to be found below:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 0% (-$17) 0.94%
    1 month 0% ($-17) 3.05%
    3 months 13.93% ($9,753) 9.93%
    YTD 0% ($-17) 1.07%
    1 year 26.38% ($18,468) 25.77%

    You can also check on ELP's December and 2019 performance in the Performance page.
    If you want to receive our daily blog with performance reviews and other important developments, please subscribe HERE.
    Good luck and a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Jan.10, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Well, tell me who your friends are and I will tell you who you are. Russia seems to have recklessly shot down a civilian plane over Ukraine, and now Iran, just as recklessly, seems to have shot down a civilian plane over its own territory (a Ukrainian one - isn't that a sordid and telling coincidence?). That story is not yet over. While nobody wants a war, I am sure nobody wants to let it simply slide, otherwise evil regimes of the world will feel free to bomb, shoot and ravage civilians as they please... Well, they almost do so now, don't they?
    The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which is a highly respected organization - suffice it to say that it developed GNP and GDP (with the Russian American economist Simon Kuznets leading the project) and is responsible for identifying starts and ends of economic recessions in the US - has estimated that American taxpayers pay approximately 100% of the tariffs imposed by President Trump on imports from China.
    We are in a short position now, but as might be supposed, the market may yet go up for some time. It is to be expected with ELP Program, or any other program or system, as it is virtually impossible to pinpoint the moment of reversal precisely. Nothing unusual about that. If you are sufficiently capitalized, you have nothing to worry about.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.09, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    All right! We are short. We have a position, we are active at last. But the market is up, in this relentless uptrend. Like they say: beware of your desires, they sometimes come true.))) As we predicted, the market resilience spilled into new records yesterday, and, besides giving us the opportunity to go short at a decent price, it looks like it will still hover for a time at the top.
    The Iranian scare fizzled as it became known that Iranians had deliberately avoided casualties among Americans. But you never really know: Iran may be preparing some other and more serious response in addition to the immediate and demonstrative one. The economy looks good: unemployment is low, GDP is growing, and even the balance of trade looks better. But all these developments seem to be reflected already in the stock prices. Our assessment is that stocks are high enough to expect a correction of sorts.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.08, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Prices were mostly range-bound yesterday, but S&P500 futures plunged 50-60 points after the day close when it became known that Iran had bombed two US bases in Iraq. Early in the morning President Trump tweeted that "all was well" and there were no casualties among the Americans (one Iraqi officer died), and futures climbed back to approximately where they left off yesterday. To complicate things, a Ukrainian plane crashed just having taken off from Teheran, with all people aboard (176) dying in the crash. Besides being an apparent human tragedy, it raises questions as to the safety of Iranian air space and Iran in general; airlines are changing their routes to avoid Iran entirely.
    Still, the inertia of the trend and Trump's apparent unwillingness to begin an all-out war with Iran can yet help the S&P500 finally hit our target of 3266, and ELP to take a position (short). For the second day in a row we see a spectacular reversal of an early fall, and this resilience may push the index to yet another record. I recommend that anyone following our recommendations should place a limit sell order at 3266,00 at the start of trading today. I hoped yesterday that world leaders would refrain from surprises; it was a vain hope. Let's hope today that surprises will be positive, for a change.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.06, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    Today, it looks like we can finally hit our target of 3266 and take a position (short). The S&P500 futures are higher in the night trading hours, and yesterday we saw a spectacular reversal of the early fall, so there is every indication. I recommend that anyone following our recommendations should place a limit sell order at 3266,00 at the start of trading today. Let's hope that there will be no surprises from world leaders.
    What we see now, take or leave the geopolitical complications, is the hightening volatility near the top of the price range. The top is always characterised, and a correction preceded by high volatility at the top. A correction is overdue, but this period of volatility is not yet over.
    Speaking of the night trading hours: European traders and exchange workers are pushing for shorter trading hours, arguing that long hours of watching computer screens and taking (sometimes) hard decisions is bad for their mental health. That's exactly our point in promoting ELP Program: with it, you need only to allocate half an hour a day or less to do all the trading you need. Work smarter, not longer! ELP Program gives you time-tested and proven signals to enter the market when probability is best for the chosen direction. Subscribe HERE for a free 2-month trial period and judge for yourself.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Jan.04, 2020

    Hello everybody,
    The week is out, and here are our weekly results:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 0% ($0) -0.16%
    1 month 1.48% ($1,033) 2.83%
    3 months 20.77% ($14,539) 9.58%
    YTD 0% ($0) 0.13%
    1 year 39.03% ($27,322) 27.76%

    You can also check on ELP's December and 2019 performance in the Performance page.
    ELP Program has been neutral for some time now being reluctant to enter this volatile market right now. Still, it has posted a solid performance this year if a little short of its average of 42.9 percent annual gain. Remember: it is in down years when ELP is at its best (see here Performance page). Subscribe to ELP Program to earn solid profit in S&P 500 up years and super profit in S&P 500 down years!
    If you want to receive our daily blog with performance reviews and other important developments, please subscribe HERE.
    Good luck and a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Jan.03, 2020

    Hello again in this very NEW year,
    And what an opening! After a spectacular climb up to almost 3260 (the futures did actually cross into 3260-ies in the afternoon) yesterday, a big shock later in the evening after the US had killed General Soleimani of Iran in a rocket attack on the Baghdad International Airport, in an apparent response to the embassy riots and prior rocket attacks on Americans. It's a pity really the attack was not today, for our target of 3266 to go short has almost been reached... Anyway, that target remains as the market shows some signs of recovery after the first knee-jerk reaction.
    The events prove again that no-one can forecast where the markets are heading in the long run. Too many variables have to be considered, too many unpredictable situations and decisions have to be predicted. This is why our solution is this: do not try to predict the market; follow it. That said, there should be a method in place to decide when and how to enter. It is here where ELP Program comes in: it gives you time-tested and proven signals to enter the market when probability is best for the chosen direction. It does not mean that the market will go your way at exactly the point of entry; but it will go your way eventually. And another problem: when to exit? ELP Program provides answers to this one, too. Subscribe HERE and be ready to trade in 2020 confidently and profitably!
    Happy holidays again,
    ELP team
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    Jan.01, 2020

    Hi everybody, and happy New Year!
    Although the 31st was the end of the year, the end of the month, and so, logically, the end of the last week of the month, we will post our weekly results as usual on Saturday, when the week is tehnically complete. We will also update our performance page to include the month of December and the year 2019 in the results.
    Today, I will take the opportunity to say a couple of words as to how ELP Program can be used to trade the S&P 500 index. First of all, I'll reiterate that ELP is intended mostly and primarily for trading futures. Any other markets, such as ETFs, options etc., require taking into consideration more variables, such as management fees, time to expiration and so on and so forth. It is possible, but we have not done it, concentrating rather on the S&P 500 futures, which provide excellent liquidity, almost round-the-clock trading and many other advantages.
    That said, how can a trader take advantage of ELP Program? First, by subscribing to our signals service and making trades himself. Second, by letting us trade according to ELP signals on their trading accounts. The latter option requires a limited trading POA to be provided by the trader to the broker allowing us to trade in their accounts (without the right to deposit or withdraw money). We recommend the second option, because when a trader trades according to somebody other's program, he may have second thoughts at the last moment, or forget, be ill, be busy at work etc. For us, this IS out work, so we are guaranteed to make a trade when the time comes. The additional fees involved are rather symbolical. Ask us for details via the contacts on each page of our website
    Happy holidays again,
    ELP team
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    Dec.30, 2019

    Hi everybody,
    On the last day of the year, our team congratulates all traders and investors, professional and non-professional alike, with the coming New Year and a new decade of the 21 century! What will it bring us all? God only knows. But with the tools like our ELP Program, I am sure we will be able to face the challenges that markets have in store for us. We wish you luck and wisdom, health and wealth, patience and courage, many friends and friendly relatives!
    ELP finishes the year rather on a passive note, but this is nothing new for the Program. Overall, it has been out of the market (with a zero position) for more than 12% of all time. Conditions are gradually ripening for it to open an active position. Follow our signals, and all will be well.
    Happy holidays,
    ELP team
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    Dec.28, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    This is the last Saturday of the year. It is a little sad, just because of the fact that everything passes, good and bad, cool and uncool, rally and slump. But we are looking forward to the new year hoping - as usual - that at least we, in our personal life, will do better next time. Oh well... Here is our weekly performance review:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 0% ($0) 0.58%
    1 month 3.38% ($2,366) 3.15%
    3 months 7.91% ($5,538) 9.39%
    YTD 39.49% ($27,640) 29.25%
    1 year 41.84% ($29,288) 30.34%

    ELP Program has been neutral for some time now being reluctant to enter this over-confident market right now. Still, it has posted a solid performance this year if a little short of its average of 44.75 percent annual gain. Remember: it is in down years when ELP is at its best (see here Performance page). Subscribe to ELP Program to earn solid profit in S&P 500 up years and super profit in S&P 500 down years!
    If you want to receive our daily blog with performance reviews and other important developments, please subscribe HERE.
    Good luck and a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Dec.27, 2019

    Hi everybody,
    Santa rally is here, on top of a remarkable year. Are we sorry that we are not long in this market? No way. We are disciplined traders. If there is a plan, we follow the plan. But we are glad for all those who are enjoying this ride: congratulations on that, and on the coming New Year. While we remain on the sidelines for now, the trigger is closer and closer, so pay attention to our signals. For today's signal, you should place a limit order to sell 1 S&P500 futures contract (ES, MES or SP, depending on your capital) at 3266 sharp.
    Good luck and have a good time,
    ELP team
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    Dec.26, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    And Merry Christmas to you again. People keep asking if ELP Program can be used to trade options on S&P 500 futures. While I understand advantages of options - limited risk and all - I do not recommend to trade options fully according to ELP Program. Fact is, trades according to ELP may be lengthy time-wise, you could keep a position for days, weeks and even months (rarely). And options have an intrinsic feature of losing value with time, the so-called time decay (theta). It is related to their probability of being exercised profitably, which obviously diminishes as time goes by and there is less and less time to expiration left.
    That said, I can imagine a trader using ELP for trade direction, maybe as an additional tool to confirm his or her decision. But you should not maintain a position in options according to ELP! The option may expire useless (with you losing the premium you paid) before ELP gives a signal to close the trade.
    I promise I will look into it deeper later and see if there is a possibility to use ELP in options trading at all. For now, we are sticking to the S&P 500 futures.
    Have a good time,
    ELP team
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    Dec.25, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    And Merry Christmas to you all, wherever you are and whatever your religion! The stock market has treated us with a most impressive rally, nothing to complain about. As to ELP Program, it also completes the year with an impressive result, if a little shy of its annual average ($27,000 earned so far this year, or 39%).
    I will not tire to reiterate that ELP Program is at its best when the markets perform poorly. If you are not yet subscribed - do not wait for such times but subscribe now for free and become a part of our community!
    Happy holidays,
    ELP team
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    Dec.21, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Here is our weekly performance review:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 0% ($0) 1.65%
    1 month 1.09% ($763) 3.57%
    3 months 4.82% ($3,372) 7.66%
    YTD 39.49% ($27,640) 28.50%
    1 year 49.01% ($34,361) 33.29%

    ELP Program has been neutral for some time now being reluctant to enter this over-confident market right now. Still, it has posted a solid performance this year if a little short of its average of 44.75 percent annual gain. Remember: it is in down years when ELP is at its best (see here Performance page). Subscribe to ELP Program to earn solid profit in S&P 500 up years and super profit in S&P 500 down years!
    Good luck and a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Dec.20, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    As the year end draws nearer, people spend more time tallying their gains and losses for the year. For the stock market, the biggest suprise - apart from the Wall Street rally that almost nobody predicted in 2018 - was the performance posted by the Greek stock market. Greece, the Aschenputtel/Cinderella of Europe ("Greece is finished", "Greece is bankrupt", some insisted in 2012) emerged all in shining glory this year with a 47% stock market rally.
    ELP Program remains on the sidelines. Maybe it will stay so through December, if such action as we now see persists. No matter - the result for the year is quite impressive, with $27,000 earned so far (39%).
    I will not tire to reiterate that ELP Program is at its best when the markets perform poorly. If you are not yet subscribed - do not wait for such times but subscribe now for free and become a part of our small community! By the way, it will remain small - no more than 100 subscribers - so the number of vacant slots is really limited.
    Good day and be patient,
    ELP team
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    Dec.19, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Well well well, the House impeached the President yesterday, but the market is not reacting. The calm before the storm? Quite possible, although it is not quite clear in which direction the storm will blow. Anyway, ELP Program is neutral. Maybe it will stay so through December, if such action as we now see persists. No matter - the result for the year is quite impressive, with $27,000 earned so far (39%).
    I will not tire to reiterate that ELP Program is at its best when the markets perform poorly. If you are not yet subscribed - do not wait for such times but subscribe now for free and become a part of our small community! By the way, it will remain small - no more than 100 subscribers - so the number of vacant slots is really limited.
    Good day and be patient,
    ELP team
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    Dec.18, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    ELP Program is still without a position. And this is no surprise, because in the past 24 years, it was without one for three years if we put together all the instances when it was not in the market, or 12% of all the time. Surely it takes some time for conditions to be quite right.
    Impeachment, it seems, does not make much impression on the market participants so far. At least, not enough to make them close their positions in fear of serious consequences. But it does make people cautious and reluctant to enter the market right now. Economic news, on the other hand, are good enough for traders to keep their long positions in the hope of getting some more upward movement. Add to that the magic of round numbers, and as a result, the S&P 500 index is stuck right below the 3200 threshold.
    We must continue to remain disciplined and wait for a signal from the Program. If it does not give one before Christmas and New Year, all the better: we will spend our holidays without fretting as to our gains or losses in the market. The year was good for ELP as it is - just short of 40% is a kind of return noone should be ashamed of.
    Good day and be patient,
    ELP team
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    Dec.17, 2019

    Hi everybody,
    First of all, a quick reminder that the third Friday is the day on which December S&P 500 futures will expire. According to ELP Program, rollover is on the second Friday, but since we had (and have) nothing to roll, any trader following our signals should note that going forward, all signals should be taken in March contracts.
    As I have already said, we remain without a position for now, which, on the one hand, is a pity, since the trend is strong, but on the other hand is good, because we have to be disciplined and follow the Program strictly. Otherwise we may develop a habit of second-guessing and deviating from the plan based on our hunches and hearsay, and nothing is worse than that. As the great Russian writer Leo Tostoy said, 'the fulfillment of your plans constitutes the happiness of your life'. And he was a wise man.
    It is a good time to review the ELP Program fundamentals. Once again - it is the best tool against the downturns of the market!
    Good luck and good day,
    ELP team
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    Dec.14, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    As usual on Saturdays, our weekly performance review:
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 0% ($0) 0.73%
    1 month 0.06% ($42) 1.55%
    3 months 4.77% ($3,342) 5.37%
    YTD 39.49% ($27,641) 26.41%
    1 year 25.79% ($18,054) 21.88%

    In spite of a solid, by any metrics, performance by the S&P 500, ELP Program still beats it long-term. Overall, as the year draws nearer to its close, we see that ELP is quite confidently completing the year with a slightly lower than average result. Now look at the Performance page: it is in down years when ELP is at its best. The results we see at present are just average ELP results, while they are stellar for the S&P 500. So: better not to try the fate but subscribe to ELP Program RIGHT NOW and be safe against the downturns of the market!
    Good luck and a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Dec.13, 2019

    Hi guys,
    Much uncertainty surrounding the economy seems to be taken away. At least we know pretty for sure that the Fed will keep its rate unchanged all next year; that there is gonna be a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico; that Brexit will actually happen; and that the US-China trade deal will also take place unless someone in the high places has not yet made pocketfuls of money by manipulating the market. Fundamentals of the US economy remain strong, with an unprecedented unemployment showing of 3.5% etc.
    As a result, the stock market has found its footing and seems ready for another strong day today. Still, our recommendations remain conservative - to be cautious and stay on the sidelines, because some technicals look rather scary and the feeling is that the market in going on on drugs irrespective of what might happen next. We experienced that kind of thinking in the days and years of "irrational exuberance" and "new economy"; but maybe not all remember. We remain neutral and recommend you to do the same. In case there is actually a signal, watch our signal page for our updated recommendations here.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Dec.12, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Fundamentals of the US economy remain strong: yesterday it was again confirmed by stronger than expected unemployment figure (3.5%). Moreover, Democrats in the Congress seem to be ready to support the new trade deal with Canada and Mexico proposed by Trump's administration and his other actions, despite of pressing on with impeachment. The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.75%, which was expected. Erratic and undirectional trading continued yesterday, with much uncertainty remaining in the markets, although some of it has been dispelled. Our recommendations remain to be cautious and stay on the sidelines for now, until there is a clearer picture on the horizon, and wait till the current tensions and discrepancies, both technical and fundamental, have been resolved. We remain neutral unless there is a big movement in either direction. In case there is actually a movement, watch our signal page for our updated recommendations here.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Dec.11, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Erratic and undirectional trading continued yesterday, with much uncertainty remaining in the markets. Our recommendations remain to be cautious and stay on the sidelines for now, until there is a clearer picture on the horizon, and wait till the current tensions and discrepancies, both technical and fundamental, have been resolved. Of course we remain neutral too. Stay put unless there is a big movement in either direction. In case there is actually a movement, watch our signal page for our updated recommendations here.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Dec.10, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    There is still much uncertainty as to where the markets are heading. There is much to say for up, and as many arguments for down. So our recommendation remains to stay on the sidelines for now, until there is a clearer picture on the horizon, and wait till the current tensions and discrepancies, both technical and fundamental, have been resolved. By the way, I have noticed that more and more experts give the same advice to their audiences. If people who own stock (and that's more than half of the population of the US) listen and do accordingly, it would mean that more and more people will choose to wait out this period, meaning more selling, meaning dropping prices. Well, it seems logical enough. And I will tell you in secret: one component of our ELP Program is already short. But another one, the one that follows the trend, is still long. So as a result, we are neutral for now, and recommend the same to you. Unless there is a big move in any which direction, in which case we will tell you what to do: just watch our signals here. And remember: ELP is at its best in down years!
    Good luck to you, your families and friends,
    ELP team
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    Dec.7, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Saturday today, so time for the Saturday weekly performance review: see the table below.
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 3.4% ($2,390) 0.16%
    1 month -0.57% (-$400) 1.71%
    3 months 9.03% ($6,320) 5.61%
    YTD 39.49% ($27,641) 25.49%
    1 year 28.55% ($19,986) 19.48%

    In spite of a solid performance by the S&P 500, by any counts, ELP Program is beating it so far. Overall, as the year draws nearer to its close, we see that ELP is quite confidently completing the year with a slightly lower than average result. Will it keep it up in bad years? Remember than it is in down years when ELP is at its best. Better not to try the fate but subscribe to ELP Program RIGHT NOW and be safe against the downturns of the market!
    Good luck and a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Dec.6, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Well, it was touch and go yesterday as the index hovered above our lower signal line for some time before going down below it. As a result, we remain on the sidelines without a position. The volume of trading was low, about half the usual, with traders obviously undecided as to where the stocks are headed. With much uncertainty around (trade negotiations, impeachment, now NATO differences into the bargain etc.), we may well see another December slump as in 2018.
    Meanwhile, an interesting figure from Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM (audit and consulting firm): US services companies have added 1.4 million jobs this year, compared with just 2,000 for manufacturing. That's some food for thought.
    Anyway, good luck and happy trading,
    ELP team
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    Dec.5, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    For the time being, we are keeping on the sidelines of that rather crazy game around global trade conducted by Trump and China, in which I am sure many insiders take part profitably. (Meanwhile, the US trade deficit fell 7.6% to $47bn in October, which is a reflection of an overall slump in trade - but with imports falling faster than exports. But if a nation consumes more than it produces, it is highly unlikely the gap will vanish altogether. China accounts for almost two thirds of the deficit, but I believe it will take no less than a war between the two countries to eliminate that gap). But we are not insiders, we are straight guys here playing the game of probability only, so we are out - for now. But we are prepared to enter the fray if conditions are right - see the Signals page. The corridor where we are prepared to act is rather narrow, so we recommend to wait until we confirm the trade (if any) at 3.15 pm or sooner to our subscribers.
    Good luck,
    ELP team
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    Dec.4, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    So, the position is nil after yesterday's trading, and maybe it is in order to explain how come my simulated trading, which I conduct on the CME Simulated Trading platform, has produced different (worse) results from those by hypothetical trading according to ELP Program proper (see both on the "Current results" page).
    Well, first of all, it again demonstrates that "systems work, traders don't". Fact is, when I started trading on Oct.31, ELP had given two conflicting signals some time before, so there should have been no position until Nov.7 when the long was closed out. But I "cherry-picked" the short position which I thought to be more "promising" (lol), and went short way too early at 3034.5 (instead of on Nov.7 at about 3090). This difference of c.55 points (in terms of E-mini S&P 500 futures) is exactly the difference between my sim. trading results and ELP's result for this (first on this site!) trade. So, in future, I promise I won't try to catch up but will strictly follow the ELP rules, so that simulated trading results as much as possible copy and resemble ELP's hypothetical results.
    Don't try to beat the system, or "improve" it in the heat of the trading day!
    Yours, ELP team
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    Dec.3, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    November is out, here's the results for ELP. The month saw a loss of -$2,790, or almost 4%. It was short 1 ESZ9 since November 7, but the index rose relentlessly until it dropped somewhat; but that was in December already, so doesn't count. Well, things happen, it is not a magic wand but only a tool based on probability, and probability can be wrong by definition.
    Still, ELP remains well in the black for the year so far: plus 36% vs plus 26% for the S&P500.
    Look up today's signals and happy trading!
    Cheers, ELP team
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    Nov.29, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Seeing that it is a holiday and so a short day in the US, and clearing my week-end of working stuff, here is the weekly performance of ELP in comparison with the S&P 500:
    PeriodELP S&P500
    5 days -2.19% (-$1,534) 1.5%
    1 month -3.99% (-$2,790) 3.5%
    3 months 17.02% ($11,914) 9.2%
    YTD 36.07% ($25,251) 25.8%
    1 year 43.69% ($30,584) 14.9%

    Have a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Nov.27, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Did you know that the S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index? While the index itself accounts for about 75% of the total US stock market capitalization, within the index, ten biggest companies account for the 21% of the performance of the index, while such household names as Macy's and Under Armor account for only just hundredths of percent.
    To beat the performance of the S&P 500 is a dream of most fund managers. Live their dream! Subscribe to ELP and beat the index!
    Happy Thanksgiving and have merry holidays,
    Cheers, ELP team
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    Nov.26, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Quite an interesting study yesterday in MarketWatch by Mark Hulbert. The presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren calls for a higher taxation of the rich. The rich claim that stocks will tumble in that case. Mark tried to find a correlation between the odds of Ms.Warren becoming President as estimated by participants of the gambling site PredictIt.org and stocks dynamics. Here is the picture.
    S&P500-Warren correlation
    Well, I am in two minds about that chart. There are in fact negatively correlated areas, which would imply that Ms.Warren is bad for the stock market. On the other hand, both S&P500 and Ms.Warren's odds have risen substantially since January, which would imply the opposite. What do you think?
    Meanwhile, the S&P500 again opened with a gap up Monday. If you ask me, it is clearly an exhaustion gap. Stocks are overbought, and a reversal is imminent (just when will it happen and what will be the pretext?). Anyway, we are short, and remain so. Cheers,
    ELP team
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    Nov.23, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    OK, it's Saturday today, time to take a look at the weekly performance. As you see from the table, ELP managed to eke out a profit of 0.73% this past week, but is still in the red for the past 30 days. On the other hand, the more long-term metrics are positive, which is what to be expected. With ELP, you should be prepared to withstand some short-term fluctuations, but in the long run ... Yeah, I know, I know what Mr. Keynes said, in the long run we will all be dead. But ELP's long run isn't that long. ELP is profitable every year (so far). Here is the table.
    Period ELP S&P500
    5 days 0.73% ($508) -0.33%
    1 month -1.79% (-$1,256) 2.90%
    3 months 19.56% ($13,692) 9.24%
    YTD 38.26% ($26,785) 24.07%
    1 year 64.7% ($45,292) 18.15%

    Have a nice weekend,
    ELP team
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    Nov.22, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    There wasn't much of a do yesterday in the markets, it was a quiet day. We seem to be stuck with a short position for now. Since this is the case, it may be in order to begin to get used to the idea of rolling over to the next front month in futures, which is March of 2020. ELP's rule for rolling over is to do it on the second Thursday or Friday of the expiring month, which is December. This is exactly one week before trading will be shut for the expiring contract.
    If we remain in the short position till then, all you need to do is buy one ESZ9 contract, thereby closing out the current short position, and immediately, or preferably simultaneously, sell one ESH0 contract, thus opening a short position in March E-mini S&P500 futures. If you are short MES futures, do the same thing with those futures.
    I will remind you about the rollover in good time.
    For now, we are short 1 ES and 3 MES on a starting capital of $100,000 (CME Simulated Trading platform). We sold 3 MES contracts to enhance ELP's position in ES, as there was an extra amount of capital. These last two days, the gap formed on Nov.15 was closed, and given this political and economic environment, stocks might go up again. So you could close the MES (in case you are emulating me) with a small profit and sell again higher, or if the index goes lower, remain with a legit short position in ES at any rate.
    And who knows - maybe there will be a signal to go long yet.
    Cheers,
    ELP team
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    Nov.21, 2019

    Hello everybody,
    Yesterday, the S&P500 closed the gap that was formed on Nov.14-15 (see picture),
    S&P500 daily chart
    when the index jumped above the 3,100 mark right from the start. Having done that, the index has, for now, lost the immediate reason to decline, and may quite easily continue its course upwards given any favorable fundamental data.
    But ELP is looking for a bigger move. After all, nobody has yet disproved the need for mean reversion from time to time.
    So we continue to stay put (short).
    ELP team
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    Nov.20, 2019

    Hello guys,
    The month of November is gradually drawing to a close, and we are still short 1 E-mini S&P500 (since 11/7) waiting for a change in our fortunes. Since CME provides their Simulated Trading platform users with a capital of $100,000 (and our recommended capital is $70,000, as you will remember), I took the chance to enhance our virtual position by selling 3 Micro E-minis on the leftover ($30,000) at 3117.00 - much better than the original trade at 3034.50. That is quite legit - if you have a capital larger than required, feel free to strengthen your position, but in compliance with the recommended rules. Here, the allowed amount per 1 Micro E-mini is $7,000; 3 contracts fit in easily.
    Well, basically we stay put for now.
    Bye till tomorrow,
    ELP team
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